The African tomato paste market is divided into four regions with significantly varying levels of importance. West Africa is by far the most active consumption area, with its imports averaging over 61% of the continent's total supply over the past 11 years. During the same period, Mediterranean Africa accounted for nearly 21% of imports, Southern Africa for almost 13%, and East Africa for less than 5%.
Trends in Import Volumes
Recent data partially confirms previous observations regarding the gradual slowdown in foreign purchases. Between 2016 (650,000 tons) and 2022 (455,000 tons), import volumes decreased by 30%. However, the results from 2023 contradict this downward trend, with imports surging to approximately 505,000 tons. Whether this increase is a temporary phenomenon or the beginning of a lasting trend reversal remains to be seen.
Major Suppliers
China and Italy are the two major players in the global processed tomato industry, dominating much of the African market. Over the past eleven years, these two countries have exported between 400,000 and 575,000 tons of tomato paste to African nations. Notably, China's share of the African market has fluctuated significantly, ranging between two-thirds and three-quarters of Africa's total purchases in recent years.
Price Patterns and Expenditure
The relationship between import volumes and expenditure in the African tomato paste market has not been linear, particularly due to changing price patterns. Until around 2018, the decrease in import volumes was accompanied by a drop in expenditure. However, influenced by rising global prices, African spending on tomato paste imports began to increase again, reaching levels similar to 2016 by 2023. In summary, although the 2023 import volume (506,000 tons) is 11% lower than the pre-pandemic average (566,000 tons), African consumers spent over 23% more, totaling more than $589 million.
Regional Market Expenditure Analysis
Despite a relative decline in its importance over the past decade, West Africa remains a strategic trade destination for tomato paste exporting countries like China and Italy, as well as other emerging competitors like Egypt. Based on the performance of twelve major paste-exporting countries, West African nations' expenditure is estimated at around $351 million, significantly higher than the $129 million spent by Mediterranean Africa. Southern Africa's expenditure is close to $89 million, while East Africa's remains near historic lows at approximately $19 million.
In conclusion, although the import volumes in the African tomato paste market have fluctuated in recent years, the overall trend shows an increase in expenditure. This change reflects not only the rise in global prices but also underscores the strategic importance of the African market in global tomato paste trade. As market dynamics continue to evolve, changes in import volumes and prices will have a profound impact on the African tomato paste market.
