In recent weeks, tomato prices have doubled in Maharashtra and the southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, mainly due to intense heat waves reducing production. The average tomato price in wholesale markets has reached ₹40-50 per kg in these states. In contrast, there has been no price increase in North India due to an oversupply of tomatoes ripening rapidly under intense heat conditions. However, this situation could become complicated in July when prices typically rise due to supply shortages.
Dynamics of the Global Processing Tomato Market
Globally, the 2024 processing tomato market tells a different story. According to data presented at the World Processing Tomato Congress (WPTC) held in Budapest from June 9-12, 2024, the average reference price for processing tomatoes has notably fallen by around 11% compared to the previous two years of exceptional increases. Despite this decline, the price is still 16% higher than the average of the preceding three years. For the 2024 season, the average worldwide field-gate value of a metric tonne of tomatoes is approximately USD 122, or just under EUR 112, pending finalisation of the North Italy price.
This price reduction of USD 13 (10.6%) from last year's record level of USD 135 still places the current price 44% higher than the average price of USD 85 per tonne from 2020 to 2022. These figures represent the weighted price for quantities scheduled in major processing regions, including California, Chile, China, Egypt, France, Greece, northern and southern Italy, Portugal, and Spain, intended for the production of concentrated purées. The projected global harvest value stands at around USD 5.8 billion.
Trends in Tomato Paste Exports
Recent data on global exports of tomato paste (HS code 200290) from April 2023 to March 2024 show that trade activity remains higher (+3%) than the previous period, with total global exports exceeding 3.80 million metric tonnes, the highest ever over a 12-month period. The top ten exporting countries-China, Italy, Spain, USA, Portugal, Chile, Turkey, Greece, Iran, and Egypt-account for 94.5% of the sector's total exports over the last five years.
Significant export activity in countries like Chile, China, USA, Iran, and newly included Egypt has led to a 7% increase (241,000 tonnes) compared to the same period over the previous three years. With over 3.5 million tonnes of tomato paste exported between April 2023 and March 2024, annual exports of tomato paste from these top ten countries were higher by 0.4% (approximately 13,900 tonnes) than the previous 12 months.
Conclusion
The analysis reveals a sharp contrast between the regional and global tomato markets. While southern India faces soaring prices due to weather-related production challenges, the global processing tomato market sees a decline in prices following two years of significant increases. These fluctuations highlight the diverse supply and demand dynamics affecting different regions. For stakeholders in the tomato industry, understanding and responding to these market changes is crucial for ensuring business stability and growth.
